I was reading this article in The Arizona Republic about how the Valley's standard growth pattern helped push the state into recession. Basically, the pattern was for builders to whip up a shiny new neighborhood on the edge of the Valley, sell the homes cheap and then let retail and schools follow the new homeowners as they moved in and filled up the development.
Apparently no one noticed that this was not even remotely sustainable, and the article does a good job of filling in the details of the mess which has followed the collapse of the housing market. I can't imagine that this comes as a surprise to anyone involved. It's like home buyers and builders were all playing a game of chicken with the economy. Everyone knew that when the growth stopped, developments which weren't complete would be screwed. But, when you bought your new house for a good price way out on the edge of the Valley, you figured it wouldn't happen to you. Your neighborhood would fill up, all of the retail outlets would be built, all of the roads would be widened and the guy who bought the house a few miles further out might get f*$%ed, but you'd be fine.
The cities seemed to be thinking the same thing. They hoped all of the land they had sitting around would get built up and provide a nice tax base for them before all of the fun stopped. Then it would be the next further out city that would be left holding the bag. This seemed to work out well for cities like Chandler and Gilbert on the east side and Avondale and Goodyear on the west. But, take a look at Queen Creek, Maricopa, Buckeye and Tonopah.
So lots of people and cities are screwed. I think it is obvious that the low density sprawl we have now is not good. People on the Valley's edge are stuck in half-finished neighborhoods whose buildout has completely stalled, commutes suck and public transit is very difficult to implement in such low density areas, even if there was public money to do so.
Now what do we do about all this? That's a really good question and I certainly don't have any magic answers. I think higher density but responsible growth is a good goal to strive for in the future, but that doesn't help a lot of homeowners now.
So is Phoenix's glory days of growth over? Are we going to soon languish into the place that people move away from, instead of to? I really hope not, but we need some intelligent local leadership to start figuring this out.
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2 comments:
Hi MP - interesting comments in your post. I have to agree with what you're saying. I will say this: We will make it out of the economic situation we are in, but it will take some time. It will take ALOT of time.
I think the silver lining in our economic situation is people are now re-evaluating what is important. Is living on the outskirts of town important or is it possible to marry the American dream with tranquility in the center of town?
I agree that this economic downturn will recover eventually. Even the Great Depression ended, although I hope we don't need a world war to really turn things around.
I am happy that people are rethinking some of the notions that drove the flight to the suburbs of the last 50 years. I think it is possible to have the American dream in a more sustainable, urban environment.
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